Tim's Predictions: The Elite Eight

Tim's Predictions: The Elite Eight

I wasn't going to make predictions on this one, but at the request of Jeff Smith, I decided to put some. In reverse order:

Celtics vs. Bulls

In their prior matchup, the Bulls lost by 14, despite a combined 47 points from Roderick Powell and Romaro Nelson. No other Bull had more than 7. If the Bulls want to have a chance in this one, they need stop Justin Samuelson (28 points on 8-of-10 shooting and 10-of-11 from the line) and get contributions from someone other than their big two.

Fortunately for the Bulls, three of their players – Noe Mendez, Ryan Smolarek and Jonathan Moore – will be coming off of what should be a tough battle with the Ninja Turtles. Unfortunately for the Bulls, Marcus Marshall, Justin Pederson, Samuelson and Alex Skaja will be fresh. I can’t see the Celtics losing this one.

Celtics by 15


Sphinx vs. Ninja Turtles

The Sphinx looked unstoppable against the Generals last Thursday, winning by 56 and shooting nearly 60% from the floor. Noe Mendez had a triple double and Kyle Radde went off for 30 points and 14 rebounds. Meanwhile, the Turtles took advantage of a terrible second half from my squad, Gifted And Young.

One thing about the Turtles, though, is that they almost always put up a good fight. I think the Sphinx win this game, but it will be close. The Turtles need to lock down Mendez and prevent him from dissecting their defense all game long.

Sphinx by 4


Rebels vs. Squall

If Squall, who is the same team as Phoenix Down, hadn’t just played a game against the Riddlers before this contest against the Rebels, I’d be much more optimistic about their chances. Unfortunately, the Riddlers are going to make them run and they are going to wear them down.

The Rebels may be the best defensive team left in the playoffs. Squall takes nearly half of their shots from downtown, which should play right into the Rebels’ hands. After all, few things start a fast break easier than a missed three point shot. Combine that with the fact that the Rebels are very good at creating turnovers and I think the Rebs win this one easy.

Rebels by 12


Phoenix Down vs. Riddlers

Given that I picked the Rebels to beat Squall, and that the Riddlers are also a strong defensive team, it would seem logical that I would also pick Phoenix Down to lose this matchup. But let’s look at the teams.

Look at the Riddlers’ game against the Blazers. By looking at the box score, you can see that the Blazers made more three pointers and at a higher percentage and that they only made 2 fewer free throws. The Riddlers were not winning with superior offense. They were winning because of 17 offensive rebounds and 15 opposing turnovers, which turned into 16 more shots for the Riddlers. If you take 16 more shots than your opponent, it’s a good bet that you’re going to win the game.

Phoenix Down, unlike the Blazers, has some strong rebounders on their team. I do not believe they are going to get beat on the boards like the Blazers did. PD does turn the ball over at a fairly high rate and only assist on less than half of their made field goals, which usually means trouble when going up against a team that gets so many points off of turnovers and fast break opportunities.

The one thing that can change all of this is if Phoenix Down gets hot from downtown, which as I said above, is their primary strength on offense. In their second game, with tired legs, it will be tougher for shots to fall. In Game 1, however, they could catch on fire. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but it could happen.

Riddlers by 6