Scott Nelson's Minnesota Rec Playoff Predictions

These Fall 2011 Minnesota Rec Playoff Predictions are courtesy of Scott Nelson

Now that the Lakers have taken our beating in the play-in games, I can do some predictions without the worry of making anyone mad at me. Being part of the Player's Committee, I was able to see just how crazy some people are with how good they think their teams are. I hope this will show where my thought process was.

#1 St. Baul Vs. #16 Huskies

Let me start this by pointing out that committee member Josh Hoyle actually asked for this game. I'm not sure why anyone would want to play against JSam and Klobe, but I guarantee it's a guard and not someone that actually has to guard them. The Huskies had a huge comeback win last night, but to be honest, they had no business winning that game. If the Bulls played anywhere near disciplined basketball, they win easily. Unfortunately for the Huskies, where the Bulls failed is what St. Baul does better than anything in this league. They are disciplined, they are fundamental, and they will win going away.

St. Baul by 20


#2 Rebels vs. #15 Noisy Withdrawl

I think this was a bad match-up for Nosiy. The Rebels are going to push and push the tempo and that becomes hard to match. Noisy relies on Peter Magnuson to get points and drawing Ferber to guard you makes that difficult. Noisy wants to play low scoring games and grind out wins. While normally I would say that the Rebels play right into that, the Rebels are actually a team that want to force a fast tempo, through their defense. I see Noisy sticking around for a little bit, but the Rebels eventually wearing them down and pulling away.

Rebels by 22


#3 Celtics vs. #14 Cobra Kai

I doubt the Celtis were happy with this match-up in the first round. While I have no doubt the Celtics will be able to pull this one out, Cobra Kai is definitely the worst team to face in the bottom 4 seeds. They play tough defense, they wear you down, and if they shoot the way they did last night, they could make this game interesting. If the Celtics are smart, they will have whoever isn't matched up with Dustin bring the ball up and then attack with whoever Luke Schlichte is. If the Celtics play smart basketball and don't get caught up with trying to prove they can score on whoever guards them, they should pull away. If they work to get their own shots and play into the Don Kahl, Luke Sontowski, dustin, Depont match-ups, this game will stay much closer than it should. I am guessing J Moore will get them in line.

Celtics by 15


#4 Ninja Turtles vs #13 DY Nasty

Let me start by saying that Dy Nasty seems to be angry about the way they were seeded. What is funny to me is that they are directing that toward Jason Briggs and Tim Allen. Briggs was actually one of the leading voices in getting them seeded this high. I had them as my #15 seed. I think every other team in the playoffs has more talent and I would put as the favorites in a game. With that said, they should be happy with the match-up that they got. The Ninja Turtles are a good team, but they don't provide the match-up problems that other teams would have. DY Nasty has some athletic guards, but dominant big men will give them problems.

If they would have drawn the T-Pups or Bloomington Bulls, I think that would have been the nightmare scenario. If they take care of the ball and get into the half court, I think they will keep this game close. I look at the Ninja Turtles like I do the Rebels, it seems like you have to outscore their defense, but you are actually better off slowing things down. they want to force turnovers and run. The best way to beat that is to slow down and make it a low scoring game. There is a reason that St. Baul is 3-0 against the Rebels. They do exactly that. That being said, DY Nasty does not have the bigs that St Baul does.

Ninja Turtles by 17


#5 T Pups vs. #12 Thunder

The T Pups seem to be hitting their stride. They came out of the gates and were destroyed by the Rebels, but they were just trying to work Wolf and Byrne into the mix. Since then, a 1 point loss to St Baul is their only blemish. They should have a couple of absolute mismatches in this game. Kory dirnberger can only guard one of those two and that leaves the other one with about a 6 inch height advantage. Throw Luke Sontowski into the mix and they should be able to pound the ball inside and take advantage. If I had one piece of advice for the Thunder, it would be to match Kory up with wolf. He is the one most likely to post up and Byrne likes to float outside. Put someone else on Byrne and hope he keeps doing that.

T Pups by 15


#6 Respect the Game vs. #11 Blue Chips

Ladies and gentlemen, your losers in the Blue Chips sweepstakes are RTG. Posting a 7-1 record in Fridley has never paid off less than now. I personally think the Blue Chips have the kind of team that could beat anyone and they are playing like it right now. Looking at the match-ups, I think this game has one of two ways of going. If the Blue Chips can attack with Sam Halvorson and Keilon Riddley, they should win this game. I don't like RTG's match-ups in this scenario. If Peter Mortenson tries to take over and forces shots in side against Grant, then I think this game will get much closer. It's up to Chris Daly to make sure the first scenario happens and not the other one.

Blue Chips by 8


#7 Bulls Vs. #10 Thundercats

This is the only rematch of the first round. That said, we might as well completely forget the first game happened. The current Bulls roster couldn't possibly look any different than what it did during that first game. They retooled and haven't looked back since. This is one of the biggest teams 1-5 in all of MN Rec. and they cause teams to adjust accordingly. The Thundercats will go as far as Derek Batiste can take them in this game. He will probably be matched up with Roderick and will have to score on the other end. How he juggles this will tell which way this game goes. In the end, I think the Bulls might be a little too big inside and Derek might be using too much energy on defense.

The Bulls by 5


#8 Riddlers vs. #9 Avengers

This is a classic first round match-up. The scorers on the floor in this game will make everyone take notice. What this game is going to come down to, is which team wants to play defense. From what I have seen, the Avengers want no part of that. they have the scorers to shoot anyone off the court, but their defense has too many lapses to put teams away. Teh thing about jump shots is you have to find the hot shooter. With Zhao dominating the ball as much as he does, that doesn't always happen. The Riddlers on the other hand play their asses off on D. They may not do it in an entirely safe and clean way, but they do it. Steingas will get someone out of the game mentally and Buettner will as well. In the end, I think the team that plays defense and scores will beat the team that scores and rests.

Riddlers by 6

Good luck to everyone tonight and I will see everyone next week.