JASON BRIGGS: My MN Rec Bubble Watch: Week 7
 by Jason Briggs
MN Rec Basketball Bubble Watch: Week 7 (Critical) Edition
One week left to go in the season and things are really starting to get interesting. Just when I thought I had the automatic bids all figured out, two of the favorites come up short in their Week 7 match-ups. Both the Wizards and Bobcats lost important games with some serious seeding implications, leaving a few auto-bids open for the taking. As for the rest of the league, it was confusion as usual. There are still numerous teams with an opportunity to sneak into the playoffs, with a few unlikely squads essentially locking up bids already. This week’s bubble watch is aimed at taking a critical look at every team in contention, so I don’t want to see any tears from people thinking they were unfairly ridiculed. Here’s how the teams stack up after Week 7.
Automatics Bids:
1.) St Baul 7-0 (BS Auto-bid) They took care of business versus Inception despite a really bad shooting night by Webb and 14 turnovers. While I would personally list this team as the Gold Cup favorite right now, they are not going to take that trophy from the Celtics by having nearly 60% of their shots coming from behind the arc. Klobe and J-Sam are weapons that no other team has, they better make sure to use them in the playoffs. As for their remaining schedule, they have a tough game left against the 6-1 Clark-less Riddlers. I predict a comfortable win and the overall #1 seed for the summer tourney.
2.) Avengers 7-0 (Fridley Auto-bid) Another week, another big win for the Avengers. This team leads Fridley in both points and rebounds, with the latter being somewhat surprising due to their lack of size. Fortunately for them, that lack of size has not cost them in any game so far this season. This team does not have many weaknesses, but there are a few things that may affect this team going forward. They struggle with physical teams and will have trouble against the on-ball defense of teams like the Riddlers and Rebels. They also rely very heavily on the deep ball, which could potentially be there undoing if the basket shrinks in the playoffs. Their last game of the season is against the athletic Black Mambas, but I fully expect this team to finish 8-0 and take the #2 seed.
3.) Celtics 6-1 (Fridley Auto-bid) The Celtics took down the Black Mambas this week, but did not look impressive in doing so. The Mambas hung tough and made this game really competitive until the refs had to call it due to a few pointless confrontations. Hot Tub has a tough task ahead of him this season, since he still hasn’t found a consistent rotation for this collection of UH all-stars. He started three point guards this week, before eventually going without a point guard for several minutes in the first half. I know the regular season is just practice for the playoffs, but he better get that lineup squared away before the real games begin. While I don’t think this version of the Celtics is as good as last season’s, they do have the talent to win another Gold Cup. Webb and Sanchez certainly have the swagger of champions, but that swagger consistently gets them technical fouls and might really hurt them in a big game. As for their Week 8 finale, a battle with Hand Down Man Down is all that stands in the way of a 7-1 finish.
4.) Riddlers 6-1 (BS Auto-bid) Nick Roell fails to put a point on the board and Peter Clark doesn’t play, yet the Riddlers win by 36 points. Welcome to the Summer Season at Bloomington South! There is such a large gap between the top 5 and the bottom 6 that games like that are possible even without contributions from some key members. While this team has absolutely dominated weaker opponents and the Bobcats, not everything is great for the Riddlers. With Clark out of the lineup, this team does not feature the ball movement that normally torments opponents. They have become increasingly reliant on the three-ball, with Charlie Steingas taking 40 of them in the last three games alone. Charlie and the rest of the boys are shooting a good percentage during that stretch, but those open shots won’t be there against good teams. As for their remaining schedule, they have a really tough match-up against St Baul. While I don’t foresee a Week 8 victory, this team has already locked up an automatic bid for Bloomington.
5.) Rebels 5-2 (BS Auto-bid) Another double digit win for the Rebels, but not one of their finer performances. This team is a lot better than the Unicorns, yet only won by 14 points due to a poor job defending the three. Despite their loss to St Baul, I thought this team was the heavy favorite to capture the title after four weeks of the season. These last three weeks, I’m starting to see some cracks in their armor. The defensive intensity that was present during their games against the Riddlers and Blue Chips has not been the same in recent games against the Bobcats and Unicorns. They are also one of the worst teams in three-point percentage and only shoot 48% from the field. 48% may seem like a high percentage for most teams, but that is actually pretty low considering all the open lay-ups this team gets because of their pressure defense, especially against weak teams. Despite these flaws, this is still a team I expect to see in at least the semi-finals this season. Their last game of the regular season should be a laugher against the Rainbow Warriors, which would lock up an automatic bid for the Rebels.
6.) More Hustle 5-2 (Plymouth Auto-bid) They might not have shown “More Hustle,” but they didn’t certainly show more aggressiveness in their game against the Wizards this past weekend. Paramedics were called on site, because it appeared that both refs had swallowed their whistles and the Heimlich maneuver simply would not work. Luckily for More Hustle, this allowed them to take full advantage with extremely aggressive on-ball defense and also steal a win. That win locks up an automatic bid for this team, because they hold a season sweep over both the Wizards and Showtime. While now meaningless, I still predict a nice win in their Week 8 match-up against Team Luke.
7.) Greenhorns 5-2 (Fridley Auto-bid) Welcome back Greenhorns! After four straight weak performances, the Greenies looked good in their Week 7 match-up against the Mighty Unicorns with a 23 point victory. This team relies heavily on good ball movement and must get consistent points out of their really tall front line. Unlike most of the teams with automatic bids, this team does not have a player that can single-handedly take over a game. Their guards occasionally struggle against physical players and their big men have a tendency to miss shots within 5 feet of the basket. Those issues will need to be rectified if this team is going to advance past the Elite 8 this season. They have one game left against the Secret Agents, so barring an upset this team should finish at 6-2.
8.) T-Pups 5-2 (BS Auto-bid) This team should be buying shots for Mendez, Simmer, and JB after their 5 on 4 victory over the Bobcats this week. That win has catapulted them into automatic bid territory and a guaranteed first round bye. This team leads Bloomington in rebounding and features very balanced scoring from the entire roster. Ball is a really good all-around player, Wenzel still has flashes of greatness, and Trejo has a really effective mid-range game. Despite all this, I can’t see them advancing far in the playoffs. They struggle against physical teams, don’t have much size, and lack someone in that go to superstar role that would normally be filled by Mike Byrne. Their last game of the season is against the winless Rainbow Warriors, so I predict an easy victory and locking up that unexpected automatic bid.
9.) Showtime 5-2 (Plymouth #2 Auto-bid) I describe the details of Showtime’s win over the Blue Devils in full effect when I recap their seeding below, but I will tell you here that it was a doozy. Showtime came back from a big deficit and hit the free throw that they needed in the end, which is really all that matters. They are now 5-2 and have temporarily jumped over the Wizards as Plymouth’s second automatic bid. That mess will get settled next week, when those two teams battle for the bye. Showtime did not look good for a majority of that game on Sunday night, taking advantage of some shoddy defense and turnovers in the last few minutes of the game. Having only seen them once this season, it is tough to tell where they stack up with the rest of the potential playoff teams. Fortunately for them and the committee, their record makes them a lock to make it.
10.) Hand Down, Man Down 4-3 (Fridley Auto-bid) HDMD got a big win this week, pretty much assuring themselves a spot in the playoffs. After losing to RTG and Noisy, a loss to DY Nasty would have put them on the wrong side of many tie-breakers. I don’t imagine they will beat the Celtics this week, but 4-4 is good record in Minnesota this season. This team has the size to match-up against some of the bigger teams in the league, while also having a shifty point guard that can raise havoc. The problems for HDMD come with their lack of both speed and depth. Helmy is a beast on the block, but is not built for 44 minutes/game. DY Nasty gave them problems with their quickness and athleticism, and I believe other teams can do the same. Either way, it has been a nice debut season for Izzy and his team. They currently find themselves as an automatic bid, but I foresee a slip back into at-large territory with a loss to the Celtics.
At-Large Bids:
11.) Wizards 4-2 (Plymouth #1 At-large) I knew I ranked you guys too high last week and now both of us look foolish. That game was in hand with 5 minutes left to play, but the Wizards could not close them out. They missed the front end of a 1&1, while also blowing a wide-open lay-up while trying to hold onto the lead. If I was being paid to ref that game, I would have called a foul on the Wizards last second attempt to steal back a win. That would have given Justin Martin two attempts to erase the one-point deficit, with no time remaining. Unfortunately for the Wizards and my checkbook, I was simply an unpaid observer during that slugfest. The Wizards now get to finish the season with a double header against Showtime and Team Luke, so their chances at an automatic bid have not yet disappeared. They need to beat Showtime this week to earn that bid; otherwise they could be playing in the play-in games on Wednesday, September 14th. This team has the potential to be good, but they need a full squad to reach that potential. Quincy Young and Michael Shields might be quality role players, but the Wizards are not going to win in the playoffs if they’re forced to play 44 minutes per game.
12.) Bobcats 4-3 (BS #1 At-large) I made a crack last week about this team being vulnerable because they feature two point guards playing 44 minutes a game. I guess Mendez and Simmer must have wanted to teach me a lesson, because both failed to show for the Bobcats Week 7 match-up against the T-Pups. Unfortunately for the rest of the team, that meant they were stuck playing 4 on 5 against a pretty scrappy team. If only they could do the same thing against the Blue Chips next week and give us that advantage. That loss was huge for both the Bobcats and the Timberpuppies, since they essentially switched playoff fates after this game. The Bobcats are now a real long shot to earn an automatic bid, and will have to hope the committee gives them a good enough at-large seed to avoid playing on opening night. As for their remaining schedule, they play the newly resurgent Blue Chips. A few weeks ago this would have been an easy win for the Bobcats, but now I expect this will be a much tighter game. If the Bobcats win this, they should probably lock up the top at-large bid and still get a bye.
13.) Bulls 4-3 (Fridley #1 At-large) A tough loss to the undefeated Avengers has left this team in danger of losing out on an automatic bid. Roderick Powell didn’t show up this week, while they also shot a whopping 39 three pointers and didn’t make many. Without a healthy Powell, this team falls out of the elite category and into the middle of the pack. They also will have trouble beating any quality team if they can’t improve their three point shooting. They shoot nearly 25/game, yet only shoot 29% from behind the arc. I expect they take care of Respect The Game in their Week 8 match-up, but an early playoff exit is likely if they can’t field their full roster. They have dropped out of the automatic bids this week, but I can’t see HDMD beating the Celtics this week. That means a win over RTG will earn this team a much needed bye.
14.) Unicorns 3-4 (BS #2 At-large) This team has shown the ability to hang tough with some of the best teams in Bloomington. While they have recorded a loss in all those games, it still shows that there is some talent on this roster. This is a team that really plays physical and has some really good athletes. The problems with the Unicorns lie in their inability to consistently rebound and their questionable shot selection (except against the Rebels). They don’t shoot particularly well from the field and they rely very heavily on threes. Over 67% of the shots Jindra and Wedlund take are from behind the arc, and some of those are coming from a foot behind the NBA line. If they would look to take the best open shot rather than the first open shot on a consistent basis, this team might be on to something. As for their remaining game against Inception, this team better win or their future becomes murky.
15.) Blue Chips 3-4 (BS #3 At-large) A second consecutive blow-out victory should have catapulted the Blue Chips into the playoffs. This team has won three of four games and looks so much better after getting Keilon back into the fold. They can now score with pretty much anybody in the field, but still has a few glaring weaknesses. This team not only lacks defensive intensity, but also really struggles against teams that don’t lack this quality. Another area of concern for the Blue Chips is defending against the three. Even without Keilon present, this team would have beaten the Unicorns if they got out on the Unicorns’ shooters in the second half. Those threes quickly erased a first half lead and propelled the mythical beasts to a 3-point victory. Their remaining game is against the reeling Bobcats, which should be an offensive explosion for both teams.
16.) Blue Devils 3-4 (Plymouth #2 At-large) Absolutely heartbreaking loss against Showtime last weekend, with everything now riding on a Week 8 match-up with Five Play. This team had a lead through-out the game, only to give up that double digit lead in the second half. With 2.3 seconds on the clock and a tie game, the Blue Devils were inbounding the ball at their end of the court with a chance to win. The inbounds pass actually went into the basket, therefore turning the ball over to Showtime without using any clock. Showtime then threw the ball over half-court, where it was caught in time to throw up a desperation three. Despite getting off a terrible look as time expired, the Blue Devils bailed out the shooter with a foul and lost on the ensuing free throws. As I mentioned before, it was an absolute heartbreaker. As for their Week 8 match-up versus Five Play, that now turns into a must win game for the Blue Devils. I don’t see how going 3-5 in a league with only 6 teams will get you into the playoffs this season, even though all leagues are suffering from a lack of depth.
17.) Respect The Game 3-4 (Fridley #2 At-large) Did my eyes deceive me? Was that Arthur Williams on the court for RTG in their big win over the Secret Agents? I guess Arthur is now officially the Brett Favre of Ultimate Hoops, since I think he has now retired and returned approximately 37 times. While I’m glad to see that he still wants to ball, I don’t know if my heart can take any more of these retirement scares. Hopefully he holds off on his next announcement for a few weeks, so RTG can focus on making the playoffs. The savvy vets prevailed this week against a Secret Agent squad that probably works harder than any other team in Fridley. Dudinsky was a beast once again, while Wilson has a really solid game in the win. The problem with RTG is that most of their players are only a few years away for earning their AARP cards and don’t have the quickness they might have had years ago. The Mambas took advantage of that in Week 6 and I expect the Bulls to do the same next week. Three wins might be enough for RTG to get in the playoffs, but a win against the Bulls would make it just a formality.
18.) Noisy Withdrawal 3-4 (Fridley #3 At-large) Having more than 4 guys show up seems to be lucky for Noisy Withdrawal, too bad they didn’t figure that out sooner. They did beat the Nets this week, but almost blew a 20 point halftime lead and needed Meade to score half of their points (41 of 82). This team has bubble written all over them, but there are as many reasons to leave them out as there is to put them in. They did beat HDMD and hold the tie breaker over the Mambas, which both certainly work in their favor. On the other hand, they will get punished for their numerous games with 4 players and they lost to the Mighty Unicorns when they were at full strength. All of this simply will not matter if they beat DY Nasty in Week 8, but if they lose they could be in serious trouble. They rank near the bottom in almost every statistical category.
19.) DY Nasty 3-4 (Fridley #4 At-large) Last week I said this team was one of the worst to watch in UH, but what I should have said was DY Nasty is one of the most frustrating teams to watch. They were dominated on the boards, shot poorly from downtown, and Campbell didn’t show up, yet this team still should have won that game. With the score tied at 55 and a minute remaining, this team had the ball with a chance to score the go ahead basket. Unfortunately for them, they threw the ball away and never took a shot. Then rather than playing good defense, they picked up a cheap foul in the backcourt out of frustration and seemed overly willing to start a brawl. Izzy took advantage with four free throws and now DY Nasty must beat Noisy in Week 8 to make the playoffs. This team is athletic and surprisingly tough on defense, but has to keep their mouths shut during the game. There are certain refs that take complaining personally, and they had at least one of them on the court during that game. If you think you deserve every call, you’ll most likely end up with none of them. If they show up next week with a full squad and keep the chatter to a minimum, I fully expect them to beat Noisy and make the playoffs. If they piss and moan after every foul or non foul like they did this week, they will be watching the playoffs from home.
20.) Black Mambas 2-4 (Fridley #3 At-large) They held tough for most of the game against the Celtics, but a few players were more interested in talking than shocking the world. I got a front row seat for this game, so I know how athletically gifted the Mambas are. Waldrop is a lights out shooter and they’ve certainly got more than a few ball handlers. What hurts the Mambas are three things: 1.) Only a couple guys can shoot 2.) They really have no one interested in playing down low on offense 3.) Two players are more interested in talking a good game than playing one. Who really gives a shit what college you could have played for or might eventually play for during the middle of a game? Rather than tell everyone how good you are, why not show them? The Mambas are locked up in a really tight battle with the reigning champs and Tengben is more interested in discussing his résumé. This team still has a double header to contend with next week, with the first game against the undefeated Avengers. Game 2 is against the resurgent Nets squad, and is a must win if this team wants to remain in the playoff discussion. Less Talk, More Ball!
Currently Not In The Playoffs:
21.) MN Rice 2-5 (BS) This team only had five players show up in their Week 7 match-up against the Clark-less Riddlers and it definitely showed. This team has a few nice pieces with Tommy, Noah, and Junius, but they also lack talent and depth at a few key positions. They rank in the bottom four in Bloomington in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and field goal percentage, which probably explains their record. The boys on Minnesota Rice need to have a statement game against the Supersonics this week, and absolutely destroy their competition. If they simply just win a close game, this team probably hasn’t done enough to separate itself for the large pack of Fridley teams looking to get in. If they lose, this team is 100% done. I currently have them on the outside looking in, but a dominating victory will put them back on the right side of the bubble.
22.) Mighty Unicorns 2-5 (Fridley) Maybe the game against DY Nasty was not an aberration, but in fact a sign of things to come. This team really struggled against the 2-3 zone of the Greenhorns last night and really looked out of sorts on the defensive end. Easy cuts to the hoop and open threes are not things that they normally allow, but they happened quite frequently this week. Mortenson had another monster game with 19 points and 19 rebounds, but he has to be partly to blame for their problems with the zone. Playing in the high post is not where he is most effective, so he didn’t spend much time there against the Greenhorns. Without a high post, they were forced to repeatedly pass the ball around the perimeter before taking long threes or tough shots in the lane. Weaver, Hoelscher, and myself are way too tall to give up easy lay-ups, so they simply didn’t get any. They have a winnable game next week against the Nets and have wins over a few teams fighting for playoff spots, but these last two losses might have ended their chance at the postseason.
23.) Secret Agents 2-5 (Fridley) The free agent squad needed this win badly, but simply did not have enough. Curtis being gone this week hurt them, but not as much as their poor shooting percentages. They were 38% from the field and only shot 8 of 35 from deep. That either means they were taking too many contested shots or they could not make open threes, with either option clearly demonstrating some serious offensive issues. This team plays good defense, rebounds the basketball, and hustles more than any other team, so those offensive problems are really holding them back from a much better record. Pinkett has slowly morphed himself into the perfect role player, because he fills up every column on the stat sheet and often to double digits. Even with his good all-around game, I don’t see it being enough to knock off the Greenhorns in Week 8. That will leave the Secret Agents on the outside looking in, but they might have found themselves a new franchise going forward.
24.) Team Luke 2-4 (Plymouth) Six guys show up for Team Luke and they get the win, funny how that works. It is possible that these guys are better than their record and have just been severely punished by some scheduling conflicts. It is also possible that the only reason this team has won two games is because they’ve had two games against Five Play. If I was a betting man, I’d take the latter. It really is too bad too, because there are times when Cy can be a dominating player. As for the rest of the season, I’m not able to predict a miracle run that ends up with Team Luke stealing a playoff spot. With games remaining against More Hustle and the Wizards, this team will be watching the play-in games at home.
25.) Inception 2-5 (BS) Inception lost to St Baul as expected, but then found some stamina for a win in game two of their double header versus the Supersonics. That leaves this team with a very outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs. They need a win this week over the Unicorns, while probably needing MN Rice to lose to the Supersonics as well. The good news for this team is that physical play is required against Peter Mortenson and the Unicorns, and this team has that aspect of basketball down. The bad news is that shot selection is a huge problem for this squad, with Inception only shooting 36% on the season. It doesn’t help that Lakanwal has taken 36 more shots this season than anybody else, while also only shooting 27% from the field. If they play as a team and take good shots, this team might give the Unicorns some trouble.
26.) Supersonics 1-6 (BS) They had their shot, but blew it. They got to finish the season against two teams that had a combined 3 wins, but lost to Inception this week to end any chance of a miracle playoff appearance. What makes that loss worse, is that Inception was playing their second game of the night and still won by double digits. Maybe the struggles this season will bring this team closer together and they’ll learn how to play as a team, otherwise you can chalk this one up as a lost season for a few really nice players. With pride on the line, let’s hope this team shows up in a big way against MN Rice in Week 8.
27.) Five-Play 1-6 (Plymouth) I guess they really are worse than Team Luke, despite their comeback victory over More Hustle a few weeks back. The good news for Five Play is they have a chance to keep the Blue Devils from making the playoffs with an upset win this week. The bad news is that they have absolutely zero chance of making the playoffs this season.
28.) Nets 0-6 (BS) Even though the Nets have lost the last two weeks, their team is starting to make serious improvements. Being down 20 at halftime, they made a furious comeback and almost stole one from Noisy Withdrawal. It took a super-human effort from Kyle Meade to prevent the Nets from getting their first win. Buscher had his second consecutive good game, crossing the 20 point barrier against this week. Brandon did a great job on the boards and finished with a double-double. Ryan Kelley, normally the team’s best player, struggled from the field despite going for nearly 30 points. This team has a double header in Week 8, but both games are actually winnable. The Mighty Unicorns are reeling and the Mambas will also be playing their second game of the night. While they might finish 0-8, this team now looks a lot better than at the start of the year. If they had a bench and a post player, this team might have been fighting for a playoff spot with the rest of Fridley.
29.) Rainbow Warriors 0-6 (BS) Let’s make that 6 consecutive losses for the Rainbow Warriors, with this one being a 41 point drubbing to the short-handed Blue Chips. Paris did have a nice game this week, which I guess can be seen as their silver lining for the season. I personally think the only reason Tim Allen took the coordinator job was so he didn’t have to play on this team again next season…but I could be wrong on that one. (When asked, Tim Allen did say that my assumption was not true.) As for Week 8, this team closes the season with a double header against the Rebels and Timberpuppies. I guess UH just likes to kick people when they are down.
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