MINNESOTA REC: Play-In Game Preview

After 9 weeks of regular season (including the one-week Thanksgiving gap), capped off by a thrilling Rebels-St. Baul classic and a wild night at Fridley, we've finally reached the games that matter.

The Fall 2011 postseason kicks off with 4 play-in games at Bloomington South:

7 PM - Greenhorns at Thunder
7 PM - Cobra Kai at Lakers
8 PM - Huskies at Bulls
8 PM - Tropics at Blue Chips

After these games are completed, the 4 winners and the 12 automatic bids will be re-seeded into the tournament field and the official playoffs will commence.

Let's quickly break down each one of these four games and see who is likely to advance.

Greenhorns (3-5) vs. Thunder (5-3)

The Greenhorns got easy wins over the Secret Agents and the Sarak Chea-less HMDM, and a quality win over the Bulls, which is why the team made the playoffs in the first place. Scoring-wise, this team likes to spread it around, with four players averaging double-figures but no player averaging more than 13 per game. Nate Weaver has been impressive in the middle with a dominating 3.3 blocks per contest.

The Thunder, on the other hand, had wins against two playoff teams - the Thundercats and Tropics - and all three of their losses were by single digits to the Huskies, Riddlers and Blue Chips. This team depends upon ball movement and has the third highest assists per game in Bloomington South at 17.4 per game. They also have guys like Kory Dirnberger who aren't afraid to bang down low with guys like Nate Weaver.

The Greenhorns are not a great shooting team. They only hit 29% from three-point range and only 40% overall, which means they better hit the offensive glass and hope to get some interior buckets. The Thunder like low-scoring affairs, and if the Greenhorns start missing a lot of early shots, I think that will play right into their hands.

I expect the Thunder to win this game and it might not be that close.

My Prediction: Thunder by 7



Cobra Kai (3-5) vs. Lakers (4-4)

Cobra Kai enters the play-in games at only 3-5 and are both the the lowest scoring (57 ppg) and the worst shooting (36%) team in Fridley. On the plus side, however, the team has two Hall-of-Fame level point guards in Dustin Dupont and Nick Roell and two of the most underrated big men in UH history in Luke Sontowski and Don Kahl. One of their 5 losses came with only 4 players in Week 1 and they managed to keep games lose against the Avengers and Ninja Turtles.

The Lakers, meanwhile, began their season at 3-1 but could only manage 1 win in the last half of the season. That one win was against Inception. Additionally, while the team only managed to beat the Raptors by 9, they came within 3 of the Thundercats. The real success of this team will depend upon whether Kevin Craft and Justin Martin are present and healthy. With those two, this team could be dangerous. Without one or both, they are likely a first round exit.

Either way, Martin will likely have to deal with Dupont - perhaps the best individual defender at the guard position in the league - and will not be as effective returning from injury. Craft, one of the best rebounders in Bloomington South, will not have an easy night against the bigs of Cobra. The Lakers will benefit from the poor shooting of Cobra, but will need to hit their own shots to win.

Thankfully, the Lakers shot almost 50% from the floor this season and 40% from three with only Scott Nelson shooting poorly. If this game is in the 40s, Cobra wins. If its in the 60s, the Lakers win.

My Prediction: Lakers by 5 if Martin plays, Cobra by 2 if he doesn't



Huskies (3-5) vs. Bulls (4-4)

A matchup of Lawrence Barnes' former teams has perhaps the most controversial selection of Fall 2011 against a team that may not have even made the playoffs had it not been for a shocking upset of the Celtics in the last week of the season.

Members of the Huskies claim that they are a better team without Mr. Barnes. Without him, however, the Huskies only have two wins to their credit - blowouts over Clem's Kidz and the Blazers - and lost by double digits to the Riddlers, T-Pups, Blue Chips and St. Baul. We will see how much Junius Ho can give them in this game, and the team has some solid scorers in Josh Hoyle and Heath Stoll. Unfortunately, this team is known for being poor on defense and against a player like Roderick Powell, the Huskies will not win a shootout.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have Powell - who is having an MVP-like season - and five other guys who play great team ball but are not very assertive on offense. There are certain possessions without Powell in the game where it looks like nobody wants to shoot the basketball. If Powell is off, and he has had off nights before, it could be tough for the Bulls to score. One of the x-factors in this game is Mike Kouri. While perhaps not as good as Grant Dudinsky of The Bulls in Bloomington, Kouri is a very solid rebounder and a guy who can finish at the rim.

After knocking off the Celtics, the question is whether that game was a fluke or whether this Bulls team just needed time to gel. I think Powell is going to have a big night.

My Prediction: Bulls by 4


Tropics (4-4) vs. Blue Chips (5-3)

The Tropics dropped from a potential auto-bid to the last team into the field after a 15-point loss to the Thunder in Week 8. While the Tropics have played some top teams tough - only losing to the Rebels by 8 and to the T-Pups by 9 - they did not have a quality win to their credit and only defeated the Blazers and Panthers by a combined 10 points.

Meanwhile, the Blue Chips are undoubtedly the best of the play-in teams and are likely better than a number of automatic bid teams. Other than a 27-point loss to The Bulls, which came without Sam Halverson, the Chips destroyed teams like Inception and the Raptors by 40+ points, beat teams like the Thunder and Huskies and played teams like the Riddlers and Rebels to single-digit games.

The Tropics have relied upon big man Mitch Hanson for much of the season, but Hanson will not have an easy game against guys like Peter Mortenson and Jason Briggs. I'm also not sure if they have anyone who can guard a scorer like Sam Halverson.

This game is looking like the easiest one of the field to pick. I like the Tropics and their players are all solid guys, and they've been mad at me all season for picking against them, but I think their season ends Wednesday night.

My Prediction: Blue Chips by 15