Tim's Play-In Game Predictions

Tim's Play-In Game Predictions

Tonight in Plymouth, the 2011 Ultimate Hoops playoffs begin with four play-in games. After tonight's games are over, the UH Players Committee will get together and re-seed all 16 remaining teams for the remainder of the playoffs.

As a member of the Players Committee, I have spent insane amounts of time over the past few weeks watching games, looking at box scores, calculating statistics and analyzing matchups. I figured that I should put this knowledge to use and take a stab at predicting tonight's play-in games.

Generals vs. Chaos

Each of these teams has one thing in common: they aren’t very good against other quality teams.

On March 2nd – 28 days ago - the Generals defeated the Thunder 86-72. In their three other games against playoff teams (Sphinx, Riddlers, St. Baul), the Generals lost all three by an average margin of 10.6 points.

You have go back nearly two months (February 3rd) to find the game where Chaos defeated Redemption 76-63. In losses against Noisy Withdrawal, Phoenix Down and the Ninja Turtles, Chaos was defeated by an average margin of 10.3 points.

Something has to give when the Generals and Chaos play each other tonight.

For the Generals, the key to victory is ball movement and ball protection. In their four wins this season, the Generals have averaged 26 assists a game. They have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.54 and they only turn the ball over 1 time for every 8.5 shots they take.

In their four losses, they’ve averaged a little over 14 assists a game. Their assist-to-turnover ratio goes down to 1.73 and they only have to take a little over 6 shots before turning the ball over.

Chaos thrives on turnovers and points off of turnovers. They ranked 1st in steals in Fridley at 11.9 per game and have three players – Kendric Mills, Harold Rainey and Jon Cannon – who average more than 2 steals per game.

Chaos will have the best chance of winning tonight if they pressure David Riley and Paul Olson – who account for nearly half of the Generals’ total assists – and play the passing lanes well. Turnovers and bad shots will come a lot easier if the ball is not moving for the Generals.

The Generals need to focus on making smart passes, moving the ball well and getting to the foul line. In all three of Chaos’ losses, the opposing team has shot an average of 21 free throws.

My Prediction: Chaos gets their turnovers, gets a lot of easy buckets as a result and gets the win.

St. Baul vs. Blue Chips

The next game is a little bit easier to predict since these two teams just played one another on the 16th of March. In that game, St. Baul defeated the Blue Chips 82-73.

The key to victory for St. Baul was the ability of Ryan and Justin Samuelson to dominate the inside game. Justin went 9-of-11 for 21 points and Ryan scored 26 points on only 9 shots thanks to 14 trips to the foul line. Eventually, this opened up the outside and St. Baul went 5-of-12 from the three point line.

If the Blue Chips want to avoid a repeat performance, they need to concentrate on defending the paint without sending St. Baul to the line. Jason Briggs had a nice game in their last meeting (20 points, 7 boards and 3 blocks) but the team needs Josh Oertli to play big on the inside.

The Blue Chips were also without Sam Halverson in the game against St. Baul. Adding Halverson’s 22.3 points a game will certainly help and will force St. Baul to work harder on the other end.

My Prediction: If Andrew Klobe does, in fact, miss the game due to injury, I think the Blue Chips could have a chance tonight. If Klobe plays, however, I think St. Baul will once again dominate the middle and will win the game.


Bulls vs. Poolboys

If any team in Ultimate Hoops comes close to comparing to the NBA’s Miami Heat, it would be the Bulls of Fridley. The Heat, obviously, rely upon the scoring of LeBron and Dwyane Wade, who account for over 61.3% of the team’s points. Likewise, the Bulls rely upon the scoring of Roderick Powell and Romaro Nelson, who account for 60.02% of the team’s points.

When both main scorers play well, the Heat/Bulls will typically win and vice versa. Case in point, when the Bulls lost to Phoenix Down 73-57, Powell and Nelson combined for only 25 points on 10-of-25 shooting.

Personally, I think the Bulls would play better basketball if they gave the ball to Grant Dudinsky in the post more often. Dudinsky takes 9.7 shots per game, which is 5th most on the team (Powell and Nelson each take over 16 per game), despite shooting nearly 50% from the floor.

The Poolboys, meanwhile, are a team that relies on interior scoring to win games. Averaging 67.1 points a game, only 16.5 of those points come from downtown, where the team shoots a woeful 31%.

The Poolboys also have a history of poor perimeter defense. Opposing guards and wings have been quite productive in games against the Poolboys, mostly owing to the fact that the team does not have a lockdown defender who can handle the Joe Epple’s and Ryan Samuelson’s of the world. Unfortunately for them, given who they are going up against, this problem will be even more glaring tonight.

My Prediction: I think that unless Roderick Powell and/or Romaro Nelson get lost on the way to the game, the Poolboys do not have much of a chance in this one.


Thunder vs. Noisy Withdrawal

Now that the controversy of the selection is over and a game against the Thunder awaits, will Noisy Withdrawal be able to prove that they were worthy of a higher seed?

Noisy Withdrawal wins for three main reasons:

1. They get to the line and they don’t send opponents to the line. This season, Noisy shot 18 free throws per game, compared to only 7.63 attempts per game for their opponents. In their five wins, this disparity was even more striking, as they shot 20.6 FTA per game compared to 6.4 FTA per game for opponents.
2. They force more turnovers than they create. There was not a single game this season where Noisy had more turnovers than an opponent. As a whole, opposing teams turn the ball over 5 times more per game than Noisy.
3. They shoot the ball better. This might seem obvious, but when you look at win/loss splits, the difference is tremendous. When Noisy wins, they shoot 45% from the field (41% from 3) and hold opponents to only 31% shooting (21% from 3). When Noisy loses, they shoot only 31% from the field (22% from 3) and opponents shoot 47% (43% from 3).

The Thunder are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league. They only had 2 games this season where they shot under 40% from downtown and had 3 games where they shot over 50% from three. They also rarely turn the ball over at a meager 7.38 per game.

The Thunder will not give Noisy the easy points that they typically get off of turnovers and bad shots. They send opponents to the line nearly 18 times per game, so Noisy should still continue to thrive at the line, but in order to win, Noisy will have to match the Thunder’s shooting.

My Prediction: If the guys from Noisy come out with a chip on their shoulders due to the seeding “snub” and get off to a fast start, I think they win this game. If they get behind early, it’s over. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick the former.