MINNESOTA REC: Gold Cup Game Preview

The Ultimate Hoops Fall 2011 season opened on October 5th.

The Timberpuppies lost that night to the defending champion Rebels by 19 points. The next night, across town, the Celtics - without captain Jonathan Moore in uniform - crushed Hand Down Man Down by 36.

77 days later, after hundreds of games and many high's and low's for the season, the T-Pups and Celtics will be squaring off for the Ultimate Hoops Gold Cup.

Admittedly, I consistently underrated both squads this year. I thought the Pups were a top-4 team in Bloomington South, but didn't think they were on the same level as St. Baul or the Rebels. And after the Celtics loss in last season's Gold Cup game, combined with their loss to the Bulls in the regular season (biased ref or not), I didn't have high hopes for them in the playoffs.

But here we are. 44 minutes to determine this season's champion. Below, I thought I would break down both teams and determine who I think has the best chance of winning.

How They Won

Both the T-Pups and the Celtics are strong defensive teams who won many of their games by holding opponents to poor shooting nights and low scoring.

The T-Pups only let up more than 70 points twice this season (St. Baul and Tropics) and held the Riddlers to 43 points on 38% shooting. For the Pups, a big key to that defense is their height and interior defense. While their shot blocking numbers aren't astronomical, a guy like Mike Byrne deters more shots than he blocks and forces teams to shoot from the outside.

Against the Ninja Turtles, they forced the Turtles to shoot 8-of-25 from three point range and 38% overall. Against a great three point shooting team like the Avengers, one would've thought that strategy could backfire, but the Avengers were cold from three point range (25%) and couldn't get anything to go inside either.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are also a stellar defensive team. The Celtics only let up more than 60 points three times in 11 games and held five teams to under 50 points. Even though two of those were against possibly the worst offensive team in Ultimate Hoops history - Cobra Kai - the Celtics are not an easy team to score against.

Of course, they are also one of the better teams on the offensive end. This season, only two players - J. Moore and Vaughn Ginnette - shot under 49% from the floor. Although Marcus Marshall and Garland Sanchez did not shoot well from outside, they both got to the line more than 4 times per game and scored enough from inside the paint to maintain their efficiency.


How They Lost

The Timberpuppies' first loss came against the Rebels, who were fresh off of a Gold Cup win and still had Joe Thomas, while the Pups were trying to work newcomer Mike Wolf into the rotation. Wolf seemed to have difficulty inserting himself into the offense in that game, only taking 3 shots in 30 minutes of play, and their bench went a combined 0-of-7 for 0 points.

Their second loss came in overtime against the best regular season team in rec basketball this season, St. Baul. Kyle Wenzel was absent from that game, and although there is some merit to the debate about whether the Pups have played better without Wenzel this season, his veteran leadership cannot be dismissed. Of course, given who they are playing in the Gold Cup, giving up 22 points on 14 shots to Ryan Samuelson is a red flag.

For the Celtics, their only loss came at the hands of the Bulls, and was one of the most shocking upsets in recent memory. While J. Moore has chosen to blame the loss on the officiating, the loss had more to do with Ryan Samuelson and Marcus Marshall combining for only 23 points on 35% shooting. Garland Sanchez played well in that game, but it was also a classic look at how important Justin Samuelson is for this team. He only took 8 shots and his team needed him to be more assertive with their two main scorers having off nights.


Key Player for Each Team

For the Timberpuppies, the most important player on the floor is Mike Byrne. He shoots a fantastic percentage from the floor (56%), averages nearly 18 and 10 a game and forces other teams to game plan for what he does on both ends of the court. The only knock against him is that Byrne is not the most aggressive player on the court, but when he is playing well, he's the main reason the T-Pups win.

For the Celtics, Marcus Marshall and Ryan Samuelson are the key players for this team. Not only do these two combine for nearly half of the Celtics' scoring, they also dish out nearly 9 assists per game between them. Justin Samuelson and Garland Sanchez are not exactly role players, but the ball goes through Marshall and Ryan Samuelson on the bulk of the Celtics' possessions.

X-Factors

For the T-Pups, I believe the X-Factor in this game is Kyle Wenzel. Wenzel has not had a great season. He's shot 41% from the floor, 25% from three and has only had 4 more assists than turnovers this season (22-to-18). Wenzel is one of the best players in the history of Ultimate Hoops, and if he's shooting well or he takes a lesser role in this game and facilitates, the Pups will be better for it.

If he tries to take over the game like he used to and starts shooting poorly, it could capsize the Pups advantage, which starts and ends in the paint.

For the Celtics, the X-Factor is Justin Samuelson. Thought of by some as the best current player in Ultimate Hoops, Justin averaged 5 fewer shots and 7 fewer points with the Celtics than he did with St. Baul this season. With Marshall and Garland Sanchez around, it is expected that he would take fewer shots, but he should be playing a larger role than he has been thus far. He's had more games where he has taken less than 5 shots (4) than games where he has taken more than 10 shots (2) this season.

While the Celtics escaped the Rebels with Justin only scoring 4 points on 1-of-5 shooting, that will not get it done against the Timberpuppies. He needs more touches and he needs to convert for this team to win.


T-Pups Will Win If...

They play inside out, and not the other way around. Louie Trejo, Kyle Wenzel and Scott Jenkins are all good shooters, but if they start out the game taking jump shots instead of posting up their big men, the Celtics will capitalize on misses with their transition game and could get up to a big lead. The Celtics excel at getting on huge runs to blow open close games and it is far too difficult to comeback against their defense.

Instead, they need to dump the ball into Mike Wolf and Mike Byrne, either at the low-post or the high-post, and start their offense from inside. Byrne, Wolf and Sean Ball are all willing passers and Luke Sontowski can be devastating to stop inside. If they can get some easy baskets and slow the game down, they'll be able to keep the score low and have a better chance of winning. Once the Celtics' D is forced to collapse, then they can find their shooters.

Celtics Will Win If...

They spread the ball around. The Celtics have a lot of players who can get hot from the floor and can score a lot of points, but in last season's Gold Cup game against the Rebels, that was also their downfall.

In that game, with Marcus Marshall only taking 2 shots thanks to smothering defense from Ryan Jansen and Ryan Samuelson having to deal with Dustin Dupont all game, Johnny Webb was forced to be the go-to guy. Webb took 14 shots, but only hit 3 of them, and it was his inefficiency - along with a combined 1-of-9 from Ryan Smolarek and Sonny Young Graves - that cost the Celtics the game.

The Pups have no individual backcourt defenders on the level of Jansen or Dupont, but their big men will still force the Celtics' players to make jump shots. If Marshall or Sanchez or one of the Samuelsons starts taking too many shots, and is not hitting, that could once again play into the T-Pups hands. The Celtics will not be getting a lot of offensive rebound attempts against the Pups, so quick shots or tough shots will stall the Celtics' offense.

J. Moore needs to drill into his players' heads that ball movement is essential in this game. Instead of forcing shots, they need to find the open man, whether that is Smolarek or Marshall or anyone else in green. When there are multiple scoring threats on the floor, which there should be at all times for this team, the Pups will have a difficult time covering all of them. If one or two players decide to dominate the ball, defense is made so much easier.

My Prediction:

I predict that this will be a close game. With J. Moore rumored not to be in attendance, how will that impact the Celtics' morale? If they get down early, will they have the poise necessary to come back without their leader?

For the Pups, will Wenzel and Jenkins both be back for the game, and if so, will they be a net gain for a team that looked pretty good last Thursday without them? If they are back, how easily will they work those two shooters back into their offense?

The Celtics have the advantage in talent, the Pups have the advantage in size, and I have the disadvantage of trying to pick this game.

Given that I think the Celtics will be able to hit their shots and draw the Pups' big men outside, thus nullifying their size, I think the Celtics will get a close victory. But I wouldn't bet my life savings on it.

Celtics by 4